Quantifying Forest Spatial Pattern Trends at Multiple Extents: An Approach to Detect Significant Changes at Different Scales

We propose a procedure to detect significant changes in forest spatial patterns and relevant scales. Our approach consists of four sequential steps. First, based on a series of multi-temporal forest maps, a set of geographic windows of increasing extents are extracted. Second, for each extent and date, specific stochastic simulations that replicate real-world spatial pattern characteristics are run. Third, by computing pattern metrics on both simulated and real maps, their empirical distributions and confidence intervals are derived. Finally, multi-temporal scalograms are built for each metric. Based on cover maps (1954, 2011) with a resolution of 10 m we analyze forest pattern changes in a central Apennines (Italy) reserve at multiple spatial extents (128, 256 and 512 pixels). We identify three types of multi-temporal scalograms, depending on pattern metric behaviors, describing different dynamics of natural reforestation process. The statistical distribution and variability of pattern metrics at multiple extents offers a new and powerful tool to OPEN ACCESS Remote Sens. 2014, 6 9299 detect forest variations over time. Similar procedures can (i) help to identify significant changes in spatial patterns and provide the bases to relate them to landscape processes; (ii) minimize the bias when comparing pattern metrics at a single extent and (iii) be extended to other landscapes and scales.